The nickname “” implies the supporters are what creates . Until the pandemic there was no way at all to separate the crowd from the pitch, the travel and the routine. Then the stands emptied. How much of the advantage stayed?
Two thirds of it stayed. Across 12 European leagues, home advantage fell by about a third with no crowd, the home team’s performance weakened and disappeared. So the crowd is not the whole story, and a familiar pitch, the absence of travel and the usual routine apparently matter too.
Until the pandemic there was no way to test the nickname. Home advantage is built from several things that move together: the crowd, a familiar pitch, no travel, sleep and food routines. When all of them appear at every home match, it is impossible to know which does the work.
The empty stands separated one of them. The work compared more than four thousand matches across twelve European leagues before and during the closure, and built separating three things: team performance, referee decisions, and the result at the end.
The answer is divided. Without a crowd, home advantage fell by about a third, the home team’s performance weakened and the signs of bias in officiating disappeared. So the crowd is no illusion and carries real weight. Even so, two thirds of the advantage remained, so a familiar pitch, travel and routine apparently matter too.
The caveat applies to all pandemic research. The period was unusual in more than one variable, the leagues were not assigned at random, and the results differ slightly by country and by the measure chosen. So the third is best read as an estimate for a particular period rather than a constant, and the division itself, between crowd and everything else, as the main finding.
wat. Without supporters, home advantage dropped by roughly a third, a large change and far from a disappearance.
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A sporting metaphor can be partly right: the crowd matters, and it is not the whole story.
How do we know?
The authors compared more than 4,000 matches before and during the closure of the stands, and built a mediation model separating performance, officiating and result.
What is still unknown
The pandemic matches fell in an unusual period with many changes beyond the crowd, and the leagues were not assigned at random.
Learn something?
Where to next
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